The ‘State of the Nation’ on GSHP for New Builds - Everything You Need to Know in 2024
“Heat pumps, powered by low-emissions electricity, are the central technology in the global transition to secure and sustainable heating.”
In 2024, the integration of ground source heat pumps (GSHP) into new build developments represents a pivotal shift towards sustainable and efficient energy solutions in the world’s construction industry.
Research and Markets predicts a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 10% for the global GSHP market by 2026: financial incentives for heat pumps are already available in over 30 countries, which together cover more than 70% of heating demand today.
And government policy - such as that adopted in Scotland this April, to ban the installation of gas boilers in new build homes - is moving to achieve a carbon-free future.
The heat pump revolution is here - so what does it look like in 2024, and what barriers still exist?
This article explores why GSHPs are becoming the go-to choice for heating and cooling across commercial and residential new builds in the UK and beyond.
1. Harnessing Sustainable Energy: The Benefits of Ground Source Heat Pumps in New Commercial Developments
In a recent report, the IEA identified one of the biggest trends in the GSHP market is heat pumps’ growing role in industrial decarbonisation.
“There are three major areas to consider when it comes to industrial decarbonisation: energy supply, industrial processes and circular economy. Heat pumps – which are highly efficient, can be powered through renewable electricity and can recover waste heat – are crucial in all three”
Large heat pumps can provide heat up to 140‐160 oC today, with higher temperatures possible through innovation and improved designs.
The most common industrial heat pumps today provide lower-temperature heat. The paper, food and chemicals industries have the largest near-term opportunities, with nearly 30% of their combined heating needs able to be addressed by heat pumps.
In Europe alone, 15 GW of heat pumps could be installed in 3,000 facilities in these three sectors, which have been hit hard by recent rises in natural gas prices.
The Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD), recently adopted by the European Parliament, requires EU states to incentivise renovations, but this impacts new builds too as all buildings must be zero-emission by 2050 and establishes a timeline to phase out fossil fuel boilers and fossil fuel subsidies.
In their recent webinar, ‘Market Trends and Developments of the Renewable Heating and Cooling Sector’ the IEA highlighted the challenge ahead.
“Decarbonising our buildings is a massive task, therefore we need to break down the silos. We need more synergy between the heat pump and the district heating and cooling sectors, for instance. Consumers must be aware that renewable solutions are also energy-efficient and governments that energy and climate policies are actually complementary...
Some cities, like Sonderborg in Denmark, are already implementing this holistic approach through public-private partnerships. If Sonderborg is doing it, then your city can probably do it too!”
Commercial developers are increasingly adopting GSHPs to meet sustainability targets and achieve higher energy performance ratings for their projects.
In a £18.6m decarbonisation pilot programme for the Department for Education (DfE), Genius Energy Lab’s expertise were integral to the upgrade of heating and cooling solutions by implementing ground source heat pumps across seven schools in Northern England.
This initiative was part of a broader effort to reduce energy costs and carbon emissions in the education sector, where schools alone spend significant amounts annually on energy bills.
Our team played a pivotal role in this project, providing comprehensive services from concept to implementation oversight. By engaging our design engineers early in the process, we optimised the utilisation of ground source heat pumps, resulting in significant cost savings and improved project outcomes. Our expertise in ground source heat pump system design ensured effective risk mitigation and successful delivery of low-carbon heating solutions.
2. The Future of Home Heating: Ground Source Heat Pumps in Residential Construction
In residential construction, ground source heat pumps (GSHPs) are emerging as the future of home heating and cooling both in the UK and abroad.
It’s thought that district heating could cover up to 50% of the heating demand in Europe, and heat pumps could deliver around 25% of the energy transported by the district heating grid.
And market demand for sustainable properties is on the rise. In 2022, research by Inside Housing suggested that 77% of home buyers would consider a greener home for their next move.
Residential developers are recognising the value of GSHPs in attracting eco-conscious buyers and complying with stringent energy efficiency regulations.
Networked Residential Ground Source Heat Pumps
In South Kensington, London, the ground source heat pump manufacturer, Kensa, has drilled a series of 200-metre deep wells between mid-rise social housing blocks dating back to the early 1900s. This initiative is part of a renovation program by Clarion, with 81 properties set to benefit from ground source heat pumps.
After completing the ground works, the network will be discreetly concealed underground. Heat pumps will be connected to hot water tanks in each property's cupboard, allowing families to independently manage their heating.
Kensa has implemented similar projects elsewhere:
In Stithians, Cornwall, they connected 98 private and social homes to a ground source heat array beneath the road.
In Thurrock, Essex, they replaced direct electric heaters in 273 flats with ground source heat pumps, resulting in reduced bills and emissions.
In Ashton Rise, Bristol, 133 new homes were equipped with networked ground source heat pumps.
3. Economic and Environmental Advantages of Ground Source Heat Pumps in Modern Construction
The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects that globally, heat pumps could decrease carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by over 500 million tonnes in 2030—equivalent to the annual CO2 emissions from all cars in Europe today.
Heat pumps also have the potential to reduce reliance on natural gas for heating, which is particularly crucial in the European Union (EU) where natural gas is the primary heating fuel and prices have surged.
In a scenario aligned with the EU's climate ambitions, heat pump sales are expected to reach 7 million by 2030, up from 2 million in 2021. This deployment supports the REPowerEU objective of eliminating Russian gas imports well before 2030, reducing natural gas consumption by 7 bcm in 2025 and 21 bcm by 2030—equivalent to nearly 15% of the EU's pipeline imports from Russia in 2021.
In addition to these benefits, the rapid adoption of heat pumps offers several advantages:
Cost Savings and Price Stability: Over their lifespan, heat pumps can save consumers money and protect them from energy price fluctuations. Households and businesses using heat pumps typically spend less on energy compared to those using gas boilers, with potential annual savings of up to USD 300 in the United States and up to USD 900 in Europe.
Alleviating Energy Poverty: With support to manage upfront costs, transitioning to heat pumps can reduce energy bills by 2% to 6% of household income after transitioning from natural gas boilers, helping alleviate energy poverty.
Emissions Reduction and Air Quality: Heat pumps contribute to reducing greenhouse gas emissions and improving air quality. Widespread deployment of heat pumps could decrease global CO2 emissions by half a gigatonne by 2030, aligning with national climate goals.
Job Creation: Meeting the growing demand for heat pumps would create job opportunities, with global employment in heat pump supply potentially tripling to over 1.3 million workers by 2030. This growth would provide significant opportunities in installation, maintenance, and manufacturing, particularly for medium-skilled workers.
(Source, IEA)
Incorporating GSHPs into new build projects not only benefits developers and homeowners economically but also contributes to a greener and more sustainable future for the UK construction industry.
So what’s the hold up?
Accelerating heat pump adoption faces key challenges, including high upfront costs, non-cost factors discouraging consumer uptake, manufacturing limitations, and shortages of qualified installers.
Heat pump sales in 14 European countries fell by around 5% overall in 2023 compared to 2022, reversing the trend of a decade. Sales dropped from 2.77 million to 2.64 million. (EHPA)
Collaborative efforts between governments and the heat pump industry are essential to overcome these barriers - these efforts are gaining momentum but hold up like the EU postponing its Heat Pump Action Plan, which was meant to support the sector, prevents the market from shifting gear in the way we’d like.
Targeted incentives for low-income households and high-efficiency models, along with revising electricity tariffs and energy taxation, are crucial steps moving us toward cleaner and more efficient heating choices.
Despite the policy delay, the EHPA is expecting total sales for 2023 to bring the total heat pump stock to around 23 million in Europe (EU 27 + UK, Norway and Switzerland), up from around 20 million at the end of 2022.
Leading manufacturers are investing over USD 4 billion to expand heat pump production capacity, primarily in Europe. Plans include installing as many heat pumps in the next four years as were installed over the past decade. Governments, especially in the United States, are incentivising domestic manufacturing to address supply chain vulnerabilities.
Achieving ambitious net-zero emissions by 2050 demands significant upfront investment, reaching USD 160 billion annually by 2030. But the long-term benefits, such as economy-wide fuel savings amid high prices, outweigh these costs.
Energy security, affordability, and emissions reduction are within our grasp with the adoption of ground source heat pumps in commercial and residential new builds.
For more information on how you can bring GSHP technology to your construction project, reach out to our team.